The macro environment is complex and changeable

1. After the Spring Festival holiday, the market price of natural rubber has been rising, which is mainly affected by the hot atmosphere of the macro market. The extremely cold weather in the United States led to the interruption of oil supply and the unexpected shutdown of overseas chemical plants, resulting in the tense supply situation; The global economic recovery is expected to increase, especially the loose monetary policy of central banks and the influx of funds into the capital market have become the main driving force behind the sharp rise.

2.  In March, the natural rubber market officially began to decline, and the decline continued until June. The macro factors causing the sharp decline of natural rubber mainly include: first, the sharp decline of international oil price in March weakened the cost support for energy and chemical products; Second, the national regular meeting repeatedly mentioned that the rise of bulk commodities was too fast, the market cooling for a long time, and the tightening of domestic monetary policy. The commodity market generally fell, and the linkage effect dragged down rubber futures.

3. Concerns about supply shortage supported the continued rise of oil prices, and US oil broke through US $80 / barrel, setting a new seven-year high; Help to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization. Under the dual control system of energy consumption, the futures of energy and chemical products rose strongly from September to October, the financial attribute effect of natural rubber and the volatility of futures market intensified.

4.  In mid and early December, the central bank ushered in a comprehensive RRR reduction of 0.5%; Raise the foreign exchange reserve ratio by two percentage points to ease the pressure of RMB appreciation; The national economy continued to recover, prices remained stable on the whole, and multiple positive factors supported the shock rise of rubber futures. In late December, the global situation of high inflation was grim, and the Bank of England raised interest rates; Turkey's stock market fused for three consecutive days; market sentiment was cautious, and rubber futures fell broadly.

The epidemic has repeatedly curbed domestic and foreign commodity markets

1. In March, the epidemic broke out in a large area abroad. Many tire and automobile manufacturing enterprises in Europe and America were shut down, which had a serious impact on the downstream demand of natural rubber. Many orders of natural rubber processing enterprises in Indonesia were delayed or even broken. The enthusiasm of factory processing was not high. The superposition of the impact of the epidemic led to a sharp decline in rubber prices, and the enthusiasm of rubber farmers to cut rubber was significantly hit.

2. In order to curb the spread of the epidemic, the Malaysian government announced that a "comprehensive blockade" would be implemented nationwide from June 1. The Minister of national security said that rubber plantations, commodity departments and their supply chains would also be allowed to operate, including trucks transporting rubber. In addition, rubber gloves are allowed to operate with 60% labor capacity, and cars (vehicles and parts) are allowed to operate with 10% labor capacity.

3. In June, a glove factory in Dongli Prefecture, Thailand was temporarily closed due to cluster infection; In July, topglove, the world's largest rubber glove factory, confirmed that the company's factory in Selangor, Malaysia, was closed due to local measures to strengthen epidemic prevention and control.

4. By August, although it entered the rubber production season, the "delta" mutant virus spread rapidly in Southeast Asia. In Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia, the movement of people was strictly controlled due to city closures and curfews, which exacerbated the shortage of rubber cutting workers and was not conducive to the promotion of cutting. The demand for natural rubber was damaged, and the purchase price of glue fell broadly. In December, the number of cases of Omicron infection soared, and many European countries strengthened border epidemic prevention and control. The market was worried that it would affect the global economic recovery, the market of bulk commodities was weak, and the market of natural rubber was weak and volatile.

5.  With the improvement of the weather, the reluctance of the second batch of raw materials suppliers to sell improved, the purchase price fell, the trend of Thailand's output increased, and the capital speculation cooled down. The natural rubber market fell broadly in late November. As of December 20, the 2205 contract of Shanghai Rubber fell to 14170 points, 1815 points lower than the high price in October, and the natural rubber market fluctuated broadly from October to December.